Kerry Seen Likely to Favor Greater Engagement With North Korea

As U.S. secretary of State, Senator John Kerry will probably initially favor a policy of more engagement toward routinely hostile North Korea than that pursued by Hillary Clinton’s State Department, issue experts said on Thursday.

President Obama nominated Kerry as his top diplomat in December, and the longtime Democratic lawmaker from Massachusetts is expected to pass easily through the Senate confirmation process.

During his substantial tenure on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Kerry has at times called for more U.S. involvement with the isolated North that focuses on intermediate objectives such as resumption of humanitarian assistance and bilateral negotiations aimed at pausing Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons development.

In a June 2011 commentary for the Los Angeles Times, Kerry faulted Washington’s engagement approach toward Pyongyang. “Our current approach of strong sanctions and intense coordination with South Korea and Japan does not provide sufficient leverage to stabilize the situation, much less bring about a change in North Korean behavior,” he wrote.

It has been the Obama administration’s policy on North Korea for some time that a return to formal aid-for-denuclearization negations be preconditioned on concrete demonstrations by Pyongyang of its sincerity to shutter its nuclear weapons program and to improve relations with Seoul.

Kerry “will be much more forward-leaning and more interested in a less conditional approach to North Korea than Secretary Clinton has had or would be the mood of the overall Obama administration,” said Bruce Klingner, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation specializing in Northeast Asia.

Early in his first term, Obama said Washington was willing to hold direct talks with Pyongyang that were hoped to lead to a resumption of a regional process aimed at rewarding North Korea’s gradual denuclearization with timed infusions of economic assistance and international security pledges. Obama appointed special envoys to North Korea -- Stephen Bosworth followed by Glyn Davies -- something that the George W. Bush administration did not do.

A number of official bilateral meetings in the last four years have failed to restart the paralyzed six-party nuclear talks involving China, Japan, both Koreas, Russia, and the United States or to prod the pariah nation into reforming its behavior. The U.S. stance has hardened since 2009 as the North conducted its second nuclear test, unveiled a uranium enrichment plant, and launched seve

ral long-range rockets, among other provocations.

The near-total isolation of North Korea by Washington and others has failed to halt the aspiring nuclear power’s push for a credible strategic deterrent. In December, the country conducted its first ever successful launch of a space rocket, an event widely seen as a test of ICBM technology. The North is also believed to be preparing for a third underground nuclear test.

Whatever inclination Kerry might have for more diplomatic outreach to Pyongyang, “he will be butting up on the skepticism and cynicism that the Obama administration has built up over its four years of trying to alter North Korea’s behavior,” Klingner said in an interview.

“I think we’ve engaged with the North Koreans a whole bunch and I’m hoping that John Kerry recognizes that the engagement doesn’t work,” said Richard Grenell, who served as spokesman for the U.S. mission to the United Nations during the Bush administration. “I also think that he is a realist in that he is going to see that the engagement strategy of the last decade hasn’t worked.”

Kerry’s Senate office said it could not comment on the North Korea issue while the nomination process is under way. A date for his confirmation hearing has yet to be set, but the State Department on Thursday said its staff has begun preparing the senator for the session before the Foreign Relations Committee he now chairs.

Kerry -- with support from the White House -- is likely to look for ways to freeze the growth of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program in the interim to achieving total irreversible denuclearization, Center for a New American Security Asia-Pacific regional expert Patrick Cronin said. The goal would be “how do we limit the risk of large-scale nuclear breakout,” he said.

One nuclear containment option would be to pursue a new deal to halt the North’s testing of missiles and nuclear devices as well as its production of new fissile material. The so-called 2012 Leap Day accord with the United States would have provided the Stalinist state with food aid had it taken such steps. However, the deal fell apart before it could be implemented after North Korea launched a long-range rocket in April.

“I just personally don’t think the concept of a [nuclear weapons work] freeze is going to be enough to be a starting point for a conversation unless there is some indication from the North Koreans that they are willing to consider subsequent steps that would lead to dismantling the program,” Stephen Haggard, a North Korea expert at University of California, San Diego, said in a Wednesday interview.

Pyongyang’s breach of the 2012 moratorium accord left a bad taste in the mouth of the Obama administration, according to Klingner, and created a “brick wall that Kerry will be banging his head against” should he try to argue with the White House for more engagement with the North.

At the same time, the election of Park Geun-hye to the South Korean presidency sets the stage for a year of greater engagement between the neighboring states. Park during the campaign signaled a willingness to hold a summit with North Korean ruler Kim Jong Un and to resume some monitored humanitarian assistance to the North.

“I think the Obama administration because it doesn’t have a great deal of hope of a breakthrough with North Korea … will likely allow or be eager for South Korea to lead on outreach,” Klingner said. The United States would want to ensure continued close coordination with Seoul, but there is a “very high comfort level in Washington” toward working with the incoming Park government, according to the Heritage expert.

Experts interviewed by Global Security Newswire agreed that dealing with North Korea is not likely to be a first priority for Kerry. Instead, responding to security developments in Iran, Syria, and elsewhere in the Middle East will take up more of his time.

“I think the North Korea issue hasn’t received as much media attention and because of that he will probably want to put it on a status quo path” Grenell said, adding “I would argue it hasn’t received the political attention it has [deserved] and so John Kerry should elevate it to the top tier.”

In speculating on the potential for Pyongyang to carry out fresh hostilities such as a third underground nuclear blast to test the resolve of the new South Korean and U.S. governments, Cronin noted. “North Korea doesn’t like to be ignored. It feels it gains leverage when it is being provocative.”

Ballistic missile: North Korea can reach the United States

According to South Korea, the recent firing of the rocket Unha-3 made by Pyongyang is equivalent to a test ballistic missile with a load of half a ton and a range of about 10,000 km.

The recent firing rocket by North Korea is equivalent to a test ballistic missile with a load of half a ton and a range of about 10,000 km, said Sunday the South Korean army. This distance would allow a North Korean pitcher to reach any point in Asia, Eastern Europe, Western Africa, Alaska and part of the West Coast, including San Francisco. Pyongyang launched on 12 December, with success, a rocket Unha-3 loaded into orbit a satellite civilian mission purely scientific as the North. To its estimates, the South Korean army relied on the analysis of oxidizer tank, a product by combining with another product operates the combustion of the latter fell at sea during launch and recovered by the Navy South. "Based on our analysis and process simulation, the missile is capable of flying more than 10,000 km, with a load of between 500 and 600 kg," said a spokesman for the Ministry of Defence to press.

Pyongan control Does technology ICBMs?

The tank was mounted on the first stage of the rocket. In the absence of debris 2nd and 3rd floors of the Unha-3, South Korean scientists have been unable to determine whether the rocket was able to reenter the atmosphere, a key technology of intercontinental ballistic missiles . Debris recovered by the South consisted of eight panels of aluminum and magnesium welded by hand. "The welding was coarse, handmade," said the ministry official, adding that this type of tank for storing toxic chemicals was rarely used by the powers have a advanced space technology.

According to a study by the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) published in 2011, Pyongyang has systems North Korean Taepodong, but BM-25/SS-N-6 Nodong and North Korea "should hold some Copies of longer-range gear deployed north of the country in fixed configurations. " However, the FRS estimates "in 2015 that North Korea will have two regiments Nodong missile type, that is to say, a dozen mobile launchers and several hundred missiles". And noted that "given the cooldown and preparation imposed by the Nodong system, and assuming that its mobile launchers undergo attrition zero, we can assume that North Korea would at most be able to make two launches for a day and a score launch before exhausting its stock of missiles. "

An atomic bomb North Korea?

The shooting of 12 December is considered by Washington and its allies as yet another test of long-range ballistic missile. It ended a long series of misfires that have earned a volley of Pyongyang sanctions since 2006 and allows the young North Korean leader, Kim Jong-Un, to strengthen his authority. Westerners and their Asian allies accuse Pyongyang to hold several nuclear bombs and carry out nuclear tests in order to achieve the miniaturization and install them on missiles. However, experts believe that it is far from having a reliable ballistic power and the development of a deliverable nuclear capability by intercontinental ballistic missile take much time.

North Korea: Kim Jong-Un ordered the development of larger rockets

The North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un ordered the scientists involved in the space industry to develop new rockets that are larger and more powerful than the one launched in mid-December, reported Saturday the Central News Agency the country (KCNA). "you must develop and launch a range of additional satellites, including communications satellites, rockets and larger capacity," he said Friday at a reception given by way of celebration the successful launch of a long-range rocket ten days ago. On December 12, North Korea launched a multistage rocket Unha-3 which orbited satellite Kwangmyongsong-3. Neighboring countries, including Japan, the United States and South Korea believe this is actually a test of an intercontinental ballistic missile that would have a range of 13,000 km. However, two resolutions of the UN Security Council to prohibit any activity Pyongyang nuclear or ballistic. North Korea says its engines are long-range satellite launchers civilian purposes.

N. Korea shipped missile parts to Syria: media

North Korea tried to export ballistic missile parts to Syria in May in violation of UN sanctions, Japanese media said Wednesday, citing diplomats who have seen a classified UN report.
South Korean authorities inspected North Korean cargo bound for Syria and confiscated hundreds of cylinders that could be used to build the weapons, the Asahi Shimbun said.
Seoul in June reported the discovery to the United Nation's North Korea sanctions committee, which then dispatched experts to South Korea to inspect the materials, the liberal daily said.
If confirmed, the reported action shows Pyongyang violated UN bans on trading military- and weapons-related materials, imposed successively since 2006 after nuclear tests by the secretive regime.
The 445 graphite cylinders were on a Chinese-registered freighter with a cargo bound for a Syrian company with North Korean links, Kyodo News said, citing UN diplomats.
The Asahi said South Korea confiscated 535 cylinders, disguised as lead pipes that would have no connection to ballistic missiles.
The finding was included in a report filed this month to members of a special committee that is charged with overseeing the implementation of sanctions imposed on North Korea, Kyodo said.
The apparent attempt at arms exports came shortly after the UN Security Council adopted a presidential statement calling for tougher sanctions against Pyongyang, which in April attempted but failed to launch a satellite.

The launch was widely seen by other nations as cover for a missile test.
The graphite cylinders found aboard the cargo ship Xin Yan Tai in South Korea's Busan port could be used for rocket nozzles and re-entry vehicle nose tips, Kyodo said.
The ship, registered in Shanghai, was built in 2005 and is owned by a Shanghai shipping company, Kyodo said, citing the China Classification Society of vessels.
The Shanghai firm's involvement in the case could pose a question over China's commitment to implementing sanctions on North Korea, Kyodo added.
The interim report was prepared by a panel of experts from the five permanent members of the Security Council, Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States, as well as Japan and South Korea, Kyodo said.
Every November, the panel turns over its interim report privately to the special committee to update the 15 council members on Pyongyang's sanctions violations, Kyodo said.
The interim report also says that Ukrainian authorities confirmed the arrests of two North Korean agents who attempted to steal ballistic missile technology from the former Soviet state, the Asahi said.
The panel will continue to investigate the cases involving the cylinders and the arrests in Ukraine, the Asahi added.

Satellite imagery shows North Korea missile activity in defiance of U.N. ban

Satellite imagery indicates North Korea has been testing rocket engines, a sign it continues to develop its long-range ballistic missiles, a U.S. academic institute said Monday.
The analysis provided to The Associated Press is based on satellite images taken as recently as late September of the Sohae site on the secretive country's northwest coast. In April, the North launched a rocket from there in a failed attempt to propel a satellite into space in defiance of a U.N. ban.
The analysis on the website of the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, which is called "38 North," said it remains unclear whether the North is preparing another rocket launch but predicted it may embark on new rocket and nuclear tests in the first half of 2013.
The analysis underscores the challenges posed by the North's weapons programs to the United States and its allies as President Barack Obama heads into his second term. Washington's most recent attempt to negotiate a freeze in the North's nuclear program and a test moratorium in exchange for food aid collapsed with the April launch that the U.S. regarded as a cover for testing ballistic missile technology.
In 2009, North Korea tested a long-range missile and its second nuclear weapon within months of Obama taking office, and the 38 North analysis says North Korea may conduct new tests in the aftermath of presidential elections recently completed in U.S. and due in December in South Korea. That could be viewed as a tactic to exert more pressure on the close allies as the North seeks recognition as a nuclear power.

Last month, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said North Korea continues to prepare for such tests, and the North, angered by Washington's recent agreement to let Seoul possess missiles capable of hitting all of its territory, has recently claimed that the U.S. mainland is within range of its missiles.
According to South Korea's Defense Ministry, North Korean missiles are believed to have a range of up to about 4,160 miles, putting parts of Alaska within reach. But the North is not believed to have mastered the technology needed to hit a distant target and miniaturize a nuclear warhead to mount on a missile. The North has a spotty record in test launches, raising doubts about whether it is truly capable of a long-distance attack.
The 38 North analysis concludes that since the failed launch on April 13 of the Unha-3 rocket that disintegrated shortly after takeoff, the North has conducted at least two, and possibly more, tests of large rocket motors at a test site about a half mile away. The tests are critical for the development of new rockets.
"Pyongyang's large motor tests are another clear sign that its missile program is moving forward. Whether there will be another long-range missile test this spring remains unclear but is a distinct possibility," said Joel Wit, a former U.S. State Department official and editor of 38 North.
An April 9 satellite image shows what appear to be dozens of fuel tanks near a stand used for conducting tests of rocket engines. A Sept. 17 image shows the tanks are no longer there, and a flame trench has been stained orange and surrounding vegetation has been burned from the exhaust of an engine. An image from Sept. 28 indicates a further test has taken place.
The analysis was written by Nick Hansen, a retired expert in imagery technology with a 43-year experience in national intelligence.
He concludes the tests were likely of the first-stage engines of the Unha-3 or the new, bigger KN-08 long-range missile first viewed in a military parade in Pyongyang shortly after the April launch attempt.
The capabilities of the KN-08 and whether it could pose a potential threat to the continental United States remains unclear. Some analysts have also questioned whether the half-dozen of KN-08 missiles shown at that parade were genuine or just rigged up for show.
The analysis by 38 North says the Sept. 28 images also show construction work on the upper platform of a launch tower at Sohae to enable it to accommodate even larger rockets than the Unha-3 or KN-08.

N. Korea ready to conduct nuke, missile tests: minister

South Korea's defence minister said Thursday that North Korea has completed preparations for another nuclear test, and would also test-launch long-range missiles sometime in the future.
"Many preparations have been made for a third nuclear test," Kim Kwan-Jin told reporters, adding the timing would depend on "a political decision".
The communist country carried out nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009.
Kim also predicted that the North would make another attempt at some time to test-fire a long-range missile, after the failure of its rocket launch in April.
Pyongyang said its intention was to put a peaceful research satellite into orbit, while Washington and its allies saw the exercise as a disguised test of banned ballistic missile technology.
In September, US website 38 North said satellite imagery showed the North had halted work at a site capable of launching intercontinental missiles, possibly setting the project back by up to two years.
The website of the US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies said the cause of the work stoppage was unclear, although heavy rain might be a factor.

The new launch pad, being built in the northeast of the country, had been scheduled for completion around 2015, it said.
Even if completion is delayed, Pyongyang could still test longer-range rockets at a northwestern base, the website said.
Satellite images showed "refurbishment" under way on an existing mobile launch pad used to test long-range rockets, it said.

North Korea test-fired short-range missile last week: source

North Korea last week test-fired one short-range missile off its west coast a day after South Korean President Lee Myung-bak presided over a meeting of security ministers, a government source said Thursday.

North Korea fired a surface-to-ship missile into the Yellow Sea on Sept. 27 and the launch could be related to the security ministers' meeting, the source said on the condition of anonymity.

"The missile was estimated to have flown about 80-90 kilometers," the source said.

A day before the launch, Lee and top security officials decided to urge North Korea to halt any attempt to affect South Korea's presidential election and reaffirmed their pledge to strongly punish the North in case of provocations.

"The test-firing could be a part of the North's routine efforts to improve their capabilities and range, but there was an assessment that it could be a reaction to our government's movement," the source said.

In recent years, it has not been unusual for North Korea to conduct short-range missile tests.

The security ministers' meeting took place amid heightened tensions around the Yellow Sea border between the two Koreas in the wake of numerous intrusions by North Korean fishing boats. The South's Navy fired warnings shots to repel North Korean vessels on Sept. 21.


Some analysts suspect the string of violations, along with other propaganda campaigns, could be part of an attempt by the communist nation to raise tensions in order to cause social division in the South ahead of December's presidential election. (Yonhap News)

North Korea Rejects Offer Of Aid From South Korea

North Korea on Wednesday rejected a South Korean offer to send it humanitarian aid, scuttling earlier hopes of easing tensions between the two Koreas.

South Korea made the offer Sept. 3. On Monday, North Korea told South Korea that it was ready to discuss it and asked what the South planned to provide and how much. That raised hopes that the two governments might resume dialogue after years of tension.

The North has repeatedly refused contact with the government of President Lee Myung-bak.
In a letter to the North on Tuesday, South Korea said it could deliver 10,000 tons of flour, three million packets of instant noodles and medicine. It added that it was willing to discuss additional aid once the two sides met.

On Wednesday, the South Korean Ministry of Unification said that the North had turned this down. “In its response today, the North expressed dissatisfaction and said, ‘We don’t need such aid,”’ it said. “It’s deeply regrettable that the North Korean government is rejecting our offer to help the North Korean people.”
In a statement carried by the Korean Central News Agency, North Korea called the South’s “meager” offer “deeply insulting.”


“We did not have any big expectation from the South’s puppet regime, but this time, we are further disillusioned,” it said, insisting that the South rejected North Korea’s requests for shipments of grains, concrete or construction equipment. In the past, South Korean officials have expressed fears that the North would use such aid for its military.

North Korea also rejected a similar offer from the South last year, calling it too small. South Korea used to send as much as 500,000 tons of rice and 300,000 tons of fertilizer a year, until Mr. Lee took office in 2008 and said such largess would halt until the North took concrete steps toward dismantling its nuclear weapons program. Relations were further strained after North Korea shelled a South Korean island in 2010.

North Korea recently asked for assistance from the United Nations after its state news media reported extensive damage caused by flooding and typhoons since June. More than 200 people have been killed and large tracts of farmland destroyed, according to North Korean state media.

Iran, North Korea Sign Technology Agreement

Iran and North Korea signed a scientific and technological cooperation agreement Saturday, bringing the two nations deeply at odds with the U.S. closer together.

Iranian state TV did not provide further details on the document but said it will include setting up joint scientific and technological laboratories, exchange of scientific teams between the two countries and transfer of technology in the fields of information technology, energy, environment, agriculture and food.

Any technical accord between Pyongyang and Tehran is likely to raise suspicions in the West. The U.S. has repeatedly accused North Korea of providing Iran with advanced missiles capable of targeting Western European capitals.

Last year, Iran denied a U.N. panel report saying that North Korea and Iran appear to have been regularly exchanging ballistic missiles, components and technology in violation of U.N. sanctions.

Iran's state TV said the agreement was signed in Tehran in the presence of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and North Korea's nominal head of state, Kim Yong Nam, by Iran's Minister of Science, Research and Technology Kamran Daneshjoo and North Korea's Foreign Minister Pak Ui Chun.


Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told Kim, president of the Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly, that North Korea and Iran have "common enemies."

"Arrogant powers don't tolerate independent governments," Khamenei told Kim. "In the march towards great goals, one should be serious, and pressures, sanctions and threats should not cause any crack in (our) determination."

In a separate meeting, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Kim's visit would have a "great impact on strengthening bilateral ties, expanding cooperation and boosting the anti-hegemonic front."

Both countries are bitter enemies of the U.S. and the West. Iranian and North Korean officials have said in the past that their nations are in "one trench" in the fight against the Western powers.

DPRK wants China's Flying Leopards

The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) will invest more funds in the acquisition of advanced fighting equipment for its air force and is now considering buying several JH 7 Flying Leopard fighter-bombers from China, the MBC News reported.

 Kim Jong II once asked to buy Flying Leopards from China, but failed to actually do so.

There have been recent reports stating that Kim Jong Un might pay a visit to China and propose his plan to buy fighter jets from China.

Analysts have said that the DPRK air force could not enhance its overall fighting power by merely strengthening training. It also needs to import more advanced equipment. One way to swiftly increase its fighting capacity is to equip the air force with a type of fighter-bomber.

At present, only Russia and China might sell their fighter jets to the DPRK. But due to its limited arms production capacity, the Russian air force does not possess mass-equipped, high-functional fighter-bombers and its Sukhoi Su-34 fighters only have a limited production and thus may not be available for export.

Therefore the DPRK is unlikely to buy the fighter-bombers from Russia. Additionally, China owns a type of fighter-bomber which quite suits the DPRK's needs - the JH 7 Flying Leopard.

As far as the DPRK air force goes, the Flying Leopard is cutting-edge equipment. It can counter South Korea's fighters during air combat and also launch an air strike against the ROK's fleets in the West Sea.

The United States and South Korea have embarked on 12-day-long military drills, code-named Ulchi Freedom Guardian, last Monday. The drills involve 56,000 South Korean troops and about 30,000 U.S. soldiers. The Combined Forces Command has stated the military exercises are "defensive in nature."

Last week, the DPRK condemned the ROK-U.S. joint drills and vowed to take countermeasures to safeguard its sovereignty.

DPRK top leader Kim Jong Un even signed an order of battle in response to the ongoing joint military drills.

"If the enemies fire even a single shell on our inviolable territory and territorial waters, the KPA should deal prompt deadly blows at them and make an all-out counter-offensive to achieve national reunification," Kim was quoted as saying.

North Korea could have fuel for 48 nuclear weapons by 2015

North Korea will have been able to build as many as 48 nuclear weapons by 2015 unless the international community is able to make sanctions already imposed on the regime work. 

 

The stark warning about Pyongyang's nuclear stockpile was issued by The Institute for Science and International Security, which projected three scenarios for North Korea's atomic weapons programme.

In the best-case scenario for the next four years outlined by the researchers, North Korea will have been able to use the centrifuges at its Yongbyon nuclear plant to produce sufficient low enriched uranium for a maximum of 25 nuclear weapons.

That figure is an increase of only two warheads from its estimated nuclear arsenal at present.

The 40-page report, jointly authored by David Albright, head of the Washington-based institute, and Christina Walrond, a research institute, is based on scientific and statistical data for its conclusions and offers a more worrying worst-case scenario.

"If North Korea has two centrifuge plants, however, it could produce a much larger quantity of WGU (weapons-grade uranium)," the analysts concluded. "It could have 37-48 nuclear weapons, or an increase of 25 weapons, most of which would be produced in 2015 and 2016."

To date, North Korea's research has been focused on plutonium weapons and the regime carried out nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009.
Those tests, along with the test firing of a nuclear-capable missile in April, triggered international condemnation and the tightening of sanctions, but Pyongyang remains defiant.
Analysts believe that North Korean scientists are now focusing their research on uranium and its potential as a weapon.
Pyongyang has a minimum of six – and potentially as many as 18 – plutonium bombs, while another recent ISIS study predicted that North Korea will complete construction of a new light-water reactor at Yongbyon in late 2013.

N. Korea may be preparing for nuke, missile tests

North Korea may be preparing to conduct a nuclear or missile test in the near future, a government report submitted during a meeting with ruling party lawmakers showed Friday.

   "The defense ministry claimed that the communist country was prepared to carry out tests with little preparation time," said a senior Saenuri official, who declined to be identified.

   The party official said while the report alluded to the communist country's capabilities, Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin did not touch on the matter during the meeting.

   Pyongyang has conducted two nuclear tests so far, and launched several missiles it claims are designed to carry satellites into orbit. Most outside observers said such rockets are in fact missiles the country is developing to target the United States.


   Senior government officials and party members discussed negotiations taking place with the United States to extend South Korea's ballistic missile range. Seoul sees this issue as vital for ensuring credible deterrence against North Korea's military threat.

   "Every effort is being made to reflect our views, that call for missiles with a range to cover all of the Korean Peninsula," Kim told lawmakers.

   Rep. Ahn Hong-joon, who chairs the National Assembly's Unification, Foreign Affairs and Trade Committee, said the senior policymaker remained cautious about the outcome of talks with Washington but hinted at positive progress being made.

   During the session, the defense minister, in addition, expressed concerns the North may try to interfere with South Korea's presidential election slated for December as it maintains a hostile posture toward its southern rival.

   Kim's said his assessment was based on "rare" moves by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

   "(Kim Jong-un) is trying to exercise control over the regime by taking such steps as visiting a military unit for the first time in 73 days," the minister said, referring to an inspection trip earlier this month that was widely interpreted as a morale booster for North Korean soldiers ahead of South Korea's annual military drills with the United States.

   Seoul and Washington have made clear that the annual military exercise, scheduled for Aug. 20 through Aug. 31, is defensive in nature, but the North has consistently claimed it is part of a broader plan to invade the communist country.

   The minister, however, did not elaborate on how North Korea might try to affect the South's presidential election.

   South Korean Unification Minister Yu Woo-ik, who was also at the meeting, said he is still skeptical about claims by some analysts that Pyongyang has moved toward reforms.

   Kim Jong-un's recent dismissal of army chief Ri Yong-ho and his use of American cultural icons such as Mickey Mouse and other Disney characters fueled such speculations.

   "It's still early to conclude that (actual) changes are taking place based on a few signs," Yu said. "However, there's no reason to ignore those signs either."

   Related to developments in the North, the government and the ruling party said Seoul could consider offering flood aid to North Korea after the impoverished country was hit hard by a typhoon and heavy downpours that caused floods.

   Pyongyang claimed 210,000 people were displaced by the string of natural disasters.

   "Seoul is carefully assessing damage in the North and if it concludes there is a need to extend assistance, it can consider such a move then," a working level Unification Ministry source said.

   He stressed that for the moment, nothing has changed in South Korea's policy toward its northern neighbor.

   Policymakers halted all aid to the communist country after it was determined that North Korea torpedoed a South Korean warship in the Yellow Sea in March 2010. The sinking resulted in the death of 46 sailors.

   The official said the ministry is looking favorably on a move by 21 lawmakers to visit the Kaesong Industrial Complex just north of the demilitarized zone, to mark the completion of a road and bus station.

   The road and station were built with Seoul's support and will make it easier for North Korean workers to reach the industrial complex where South Korean companies make various labor-intensive products.Asian Defence News

In Asia, A Wave Of Escalating Territorial Disputes

The disputed islands and islets in Asia are, on the whole, an unimpressive bunch. Most are rocky, windswept outcroppings far from any mainland. One has a lighthouse but no people.
But these tiny territories, sweeping from southeast to northeast Asia, are fiercely contested among countries that are buoyed by nationalism and by a growing thirst for the natural resources off their shores. At a time when the United States has promised to play a greater role in Asia, some security experts say the territories represent the region’s greatest potential flash point aside from North Korea.

The territorial disputes involve nearly a dozen countries in at least three major seas, and they have set off a chaotic crisscross of conflict in some of the world’s most trafficked shipping lanes. The disputes are not all connected, but analysts say that several of Asia’s key countries — China, Japan, South Korea and the Philippines — have in recent months followed a similar pattern, turning old historical squabbles into national priorities, escalating tensions and raising the chances of a small-scale armed conflict.
The countries are driven to claim these far-flung offshore territories in part because of their gro
wing need for the oil and gas reserves in the waters around them. Japan fears prolonged energy shortages as it turns from nuclear power, and China, already responsible for one-fifth of the world’s energy consumption, is racing to increase its share as its economy modernizes.
“Energy resources are increasingly a critical issue here,” said Rory Medcalf, director of international security at the Sydney-based Lowy Institute. “Particularly from a Chinese and Japanese point of view, there’s a new sense of the need for energy security. None of these countries want to categorically give up claims to territory where there could be large hydrocarbon deposits.”
The countries are also driven by fierce, though sometimes small, nationalist movements in their own back yards. The nationalism has been intensified by social media, some analysts say, particularly in China, where hundreds of millions of Internet users can share their opinions and public sentiment is harder than ever to ignore. Countries such as South Korea and China are set for leadership changes this year, making government officials wary of backing off claims and appearing weak.
“We’ve seen over history countries go to war over territory — area that seems to be meaningless, but it’s the soil of the country,” said Bruce Klingner, a senior researcher and a Northeast Asia expert at the Heritage Foundation. “Even if it would appear illogical for countries to risk conflagration over rocks. . . that is what is occurring.”
Tenuous relationships
The most notable current disputes involve Japan and South Korea, China and Japan, and China and a host of southeast Asian countries, most vocally the Philippines and Vietnam.
China, with its increased military spending and naval might, is often pinpointed by foreign leaders as the regional bully, pushing its boundaries and intimidating smaller neighbors. But other countries have responded with shows of force of their own. Several southeast Asian countries have tightened alliances with Washington and conducted joint military drills. Japan realigned its Self-Defense Forces with the aim to better defend disputed waters. In July, Philippine President Benigno Aquino III asked his country’s congress to approve a massive military upgrade involving new planes and combat helicopters that could be used to defend contested areas in the South China Sea.
“If someone enters your yard and told you he owns it, will you allow that?” Aquino said. “It’s not right to give away what is rightfully ours.”
Managing the territorial disputes has become a fraught issue for Asian leaders. One much-criticized move came Friday when South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, in an apparent ploy to boost his low support ratings, traveled by helicopter for a 70-minute visit to the Dokdo (or Takeshima) islets, also claimed by Japan.
“Dokdo is genuinely our territory,” Lee said on the island, where he laid flowers in front of a monument commemorating Koreans who died defending the territory.
“Why did he visit there at a time when we need to consider issues from a broad viewpoint?” Japanese Foreign Minister Koichiro Gemba said soon after. “It is extremely regrettable.”
Security experts say the Japan-South Korea dispute has little chance of escalating into violence, because the two countries — Washington’s closest allies in Asia — are mostly cooperative economic partners, despite lingering animosities from Japan’s 35-year occupation.
Disputes with China
But other areas in the region are more troubling, particularly those claimed by China. A recent report from the Brussels-based International Crisis Group described how China is patrolling the sea with “nine dragons,” a tangle of conflicting government agencies, many of them trying to increase their power and budget.
The People’s Liberation Army Navy tends to take a background role in sea disputes, the report said, allowing a greater role for civilian law enforcement or paramilitary agencies. An increasing number of rogue Chinese fishing vessels are also operating in contested areas, as seen in an April standoff between Beijing and Manila that started when Chinese fishermen were caught poaching near the disputed Scarborough Shoal.
Eventually, China won the standoff and the fishermen made off with their catch.
Washington has tried to stay neutral in the various disputes but has emphasized the importance of freedom of navigation. During a June meeting with Aquino, President Obama urged Asian countries to settle on a “strong set of international norms and rules governing maritime disputes in the region.”
Regional leaders, though, have failed to agree on any set of rules, and at a July foreign ministers’ meeting in Cambodia, conflicts about the South China Sea prompted the leaders to walk away without even a basic communique.
A recent Pentagon-commissioned proposal by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank in Washington, pointed out that “stakes are growing” in the region because of China’s aggressive maritime activities.
The think tank’s proposal on U.S. strategy in Asia raised the possibility of basing a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier on the Australian coast, allowing the U.S. a second carrier strike group in the region.
But Australia’s defense minister quickly rejected the idea, and analysts in Australia suggested the country was unwilling to antagonize China, its largest trading partner.

Asian Defence News

North Korea Deploys Attack Helicopters Near Sea Border

North Korea has placed several dozen combat helicopters near its sea border with South Korea, the Yonhap news agency reported on Tuesday citing South Korean government sources.
North Korea has deployed around 50 upgraded Russian-made helicopters on Baeknyeong Island in the West Sea since May.
The attack helicopters are armed with rockets and antitank missiles and are capable of carrying explosives weighing up to 500 kilograms.
The deployment appears to come in response to South Korea stationing AH-1S Cobra attack helicopters and multiple launch rocket systems on the West Sea islands.
South Korea is ready to strike back with Cheonma surface-to-air-missiles or deploy KF-16 fighter jets, the source said.
Asian Defence News

Army chief of North Korea removed from office

The head of the North Korean Army was relieved of his duties "due to illness," said Monday, July 16 the agency official, a public announcement in this country very unexpected secret, which signals the willingness of the new leader curb the power of the military analysts said.

Ri Yong-ho, 69, is considered one of the key figures who supported the young leader Kim Jong-one during the transition of power in North Korea following the death of his father, Kim Jong- it, in December 2011. The Chief of Staff, appreciated Kim Jong-il, was appointed in 2009 to head the army, consisting of 1.2 million soldiers (for a population of 24 million inhabitants), the fourth the world in terms of numbers. He had been seen repeatedly in recent months accompanying the new leader when touring military bases. He was present at the tribute paid by Kim Jong-un to his grandfather Kim Il-sung on the occasion of the anniversary of his death in early July.

At a meeting of the Politburo of the ruling party, it was decided "to raise Ri Yong-ho of all its functions [...] due to illness," said KCNA, the news agency North Korean, received in Seoul. Ri was a member of the Presidium of the Politburo, the body's most powerful countries, which do serve a handful of individuals, and vice-president of the Central Military Commission of the Workers' Party of Korea, the agency said . This party is the only North Korea, Communist dictatorship headed by an iron fist since 1948 by three generations of Kim (grandfather, father and son).

AN ARMY TOO POWERFUL?

The Ministry of Unification of South Korea, responsible for relations between the two countries, noted the side "unusual" the KCNA announcement. "What was announced as quickly is very unusual. We study the situation with interest," said the press spokesman of the Ministry. Ri Yong-ho was one of seven executives of the party and the army to have accompanied Kim Jong-un the side of the hearse of his father Kim Jong-il in December.

Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, questioned the official reason for the departure of Chief of Staff, noting that Pyongyang rarely dismissed for health reasons, the top regime officials, many of which are very old. "He may have fallen out of favor with Kim Jong-un, or has lost a power struggle with other military leaders," suggests the expert.

For Paik Hak-soon of the Sejong Institute, the young leader seeks to strengthen control of the Communist Party over the army, become too powerful for him under the Songun policy ("military first") continued by his father until 2010. "Jong-A will now ensure that the party keep under control an army that has become overloaded, an effort that his father had begun to undertake the end of 2010", a year before his death, says the analyst.